US launches aistrikes in Tirkrit,Gulf states bomb Yemen

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Re: US launches aistrikes in Tirkrit,Gulf states bomb Yemen

Postby Kane » Thu Mar 26, 2015 1:46 pm

Saz wrote:
Tragic KingdomII wrote:
Saz wrote:
Tragic KingdomII wrote:
The Comrade wrote:our end game is clearly helping out the suadis and the iranians so long as it doesn't ever directly impact the other.


We'll see how things evolve after the nuclear negotiations are over. One thing that the US has going for it is that the Tikrit offensive proved that the Iraqis can't rely on Iran alone to defeat ISIS. American air support is necessary. This puts a lot of pressure on Iran to reach a deal as the US will undoubtedly be much more hesitant to act as Iran's air cover if the talks breakdown.


The Iranians could easily wipe the floor with ISIS once they have a strong incentive to do so. Right now there is no f**k point in getting their own killed to take over Sunni land they will end up having to give back to a United Iraq or an eventual Sunni state that rises from the ashes. No one really needs the U.S. here, they are just constrained by our retarded and unsustainable policy in the region.


They'd rather have their Iraqi shia proxies fight on their behalf, but they've proven largely ineffective. Iran does have a strong incentive to at least contain ISIS within the sunni arab areas of Iraq, and that's proven extremely difficult to pull off without coalition air strikes. Why go all out, invade Iraq and wipe the floor with ISIS when the most powerful military on earth can do it for you?


This is exactly my point. Iran has no problem defending Shia land, they just don't want to bloody themselves for Sunni land. And yea, why do it your self when America is dumb enough to waste it's money doing half the leg work for you. US policy in the region is beyond stupid at this point. We have no f**k clue what we are doing.


It's easy to lament it but our position in the region is changing and we appear precarious simply because there's potentially a large shift going on. We are attempting to balance something that we can't in an effort to extend out our own goals.
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Re: US launches aistrikes in Tirkrit,Gulf states bomb Yemen

Postby Tragic KingdomII » Thu Mar 26, 2015 1:47 pm

Saz wrote:
Tragic KingdomII wrote:
Saz wrote:
Tragic KingdomII wrote:
The Comrade wrote:our end game is clearly helping out the suadis and the iranians so long as it doesn't ever directly impact the other.


We'll see how things evolve after the nuclear negotiations are over. One thing that the US has going for it is that the Tikrit offensive proved that the Iraqis can't rely on Iran alone to defeat ISIS. American air support is necessary. This puts a lot of pressure on Iran to reach a deal as the US will undoubtedly be much more hesitant to act as Iran's air cover if the talks breakdown.


The Iranians could easily wipe the floor with ISIS once they have a strong incentive to do so. Right now there is no f**k point in getting their own killed to take over Sunni land they will end up having to give back to a United Iraq or an eventual Sunni state that rises from the ashes. No one really needs the U.S. here, they are just constrained by our retarded and unsustainable policy in the region.


They'd rather have their Iraqi shia proxies fight on their behalf, but they've proven largely ineffective. Iran does have a strong incentive to at least contain ISIS within the sunni arab areas of Iraq, and that's proven extremely difficult to pull off without coalition air strikes. Why go all out, invade Iraq and wipe the floor with ISIS when the most powerful military on earth can do it for you?


This is exactly my point. Iran has no problem defending Shia land, they just don't want to bloody themselves for Sunni land. And yea, why do it your self when America is dumb enough to waste it's money doing half the leg work for you. US policy in the region is beyond stupid at this point. We have no f**k clue what we are doing.


I agree, which is why Tikrit likely strengthened America's hand in the negotiations. The Shia militias backed by Iran really really wanted to prove that they could defeat ISIS on their own, to the point where a good chunk of them have abandoned the battle all together in protest.

3 Shiite Militias Quit Iraqi Siege of ISIS Over U.S. Air Role - new york times
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Re: US launches aistrikes in Tirkrit,Gulf states bomb Yemen

Postby Saz » Thu Mar 26, 2015 1:48 pm

Kane wrote:
It's easy to lament it but our position in the region is changing and we appear precarious simply because there's potentially a large shift going on. We are attempting to balance something that we can't in an effort to extend out our own goals.


Which is why it's a retarded, unsustainable and circular policy.
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Re: US launches aistrikes in Tirkrit,Gulf states bomb Yemen

Postby Kane » Thu Mar 26, 2015 1:49 pm

Saz wrote:
Kane wrote:
It's easy to lament it but our position in the region is changing and we appear precarious simply because there's potentially a large shift going on. We are attempting to balance something that we can't in an effort to extend out our own goals.


Which is why it's a retarded, unsustainable and circular policy.


It may appear so in the present but if there's a payoff...it will be glorious.
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Re: US launches aistrikes in Tirkrit,Gulf states bomb Yemen

Postby Saz » Thu Mar 26, 2015 1:50 pm

Tragic KingdomII wrote:
I agree, which is why Tikrit likely strengthened America's hand in the negotiations. The Shia militias backed by Iran really really wanted to prove that they could defeat ISIS on their own, to the point where a good chunk of them have abandoned the battle all together in protest.

3 Shiite Militias Quit Iraqi Siege of ISIS Over U.S. Air Role - new york times


The point is Iran doesn't give two shits about Sunni Iraq. I all but guarantee you we are getting punked again, and this is a calculated effort by Iran to get the US to step up their involvement so Iran doesn't have to.
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Re: US launches aistrikes in Tirkrit,Gulf states bomb Yemen

Postby Saz » Thu Mar 26, 2015 1:54 pm

Kane wrote:
Saz wrote:
Kane wrote:
It's easy to lament it but our position in the region is changing and we appear precarious simply because there's potentially a large shift going on. We are attempting to balance something that we can't in an effort to extend out our own goals.


Which is why it's a retarded, unsustainable and circular policy.


It may appear so in the present but if there's a payoff...it will be glorious.


There can be no f**k payoff because we keep playing both sides of the fence RE: Iran/Saudi/Israel. We put our thumb on the scale in favor of one of them only to put another thumb on the other side of the scale. In the end the scale hasn't moved and we have two f**k thumbs stuck in the shittiest region of the world. Then we will look around bewildered when it inevitably blows up in or face again. Why are we even f**k around there like this. It's like we are determined to involve ourselves in as ineffective a manner as possible until one of our pilots gets shot down or they drag some spec ops though the street and behead them. Our policy is f**k stupid, it's like a grown adult inserting themselves into a high school feud and then wondering why everyone hates them and considers them stupid.
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Re: US launches aistrikes in Tirkrit,Gulf states bomb Yemen

Postby Tragic KingdomII » Thu Mar 26, 2015 1:55 pm

Kane wrote:It's easy to lament it but our position in the region is changing and we appear precarious simply because there's potentially a large shift going on. We are attempting to balance something that we can't in an effort to extend out our own goals.
What large shift would that be? Iran is attempting to exert its influence across the ME but it may have overreached. The KSA coalition includes Egypt, Jordan, Sudan, Pakistan and the rest of the Gulf states. If Iran really thought that Sunnis would sit there and watch as a shia Iran backed militia took over Yemen, it was badly mistaken. Heck, KSA invaded Bahrain because of anti government protestors that got a little rowdy.
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Re: US launches aistrikes in Tirkrit,Gulf states bomb Yemen

Postby Kane » Thu Mar 26, 2015 1:56 pm

Saz wrote:
Tragic KingdomII wrote:
I agree, which is why Tikrit likely strengthened America's hand in the negotiations. The Shia militias backed by Iran really really wanted to prove that they could defeat ISIS on their own, to the point where a good chunk of them have abandoned the battle all together in protest.

3 Shiite Militias Quit Iraqi Siege of ISIS Over U.S. Air Role - new york times


The point is Iran doesn't give two shits about Sunni Iraq. I all but guarantee you we are getting punked again, and this is a calculated effort by Iran to get the US to step up their involvement so Iran doesn't have to.


Step up air strikes? We aren't going to put troops on the ground. If they want to up our involvement this is basically the limit. Iran is already involved to a degree greater than the US anyways. Iraq is essentially a host state to Iran now anyways.

What would we do further to help the Iranian's avoid the need to support it further?
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Re: US launches aistrikes in Tirkrit,Gulf states bomb Yemen

Postby Kane » Thu Mar 26, 2015 1:56 pm

Saz wrote:
Kane wrote:
Saz wrote:
Kane wrote:
It's easy to lament it but our position in the region is changing and we appear precarious simply because there's potentially a large shift going on. We are attempting to balance something that we can't in an effort to extend out our own goals.


Which is why it's a retarded, unsustainable and circular policy.


It may appear so in the present but if there's a payoff...it will be glorious.


There can be no f**k payoff because we keep playing both sides of the fence RE: Iran/Saudi/Israel. We put our thumb on the scale in favor of one of them only to put another thumb on the other side of the scale. In the end the scale hasn't moved and we have two f**k thumbs stuck in the shittiest region of the world. Then we will look around bewildered when it inevitably blows up in or face again. Why are we even f**k around there like this. It's like we are determined to involve ourselves in as ineffective a manner as possible until one of our pilots gets shot down or they drag some spec ops though the street and behead them. Our policy is f**k stupid, it's like a grown adult inserting themselves into a high school feud and then wondering why everyone hates them and considers them stupid.


Meh. I'm cautiously optimistic.
Stephen Jay Gould wrote:When people learn no tools of judgment and merely follow their hopes, the seeds of political manipulation are sown.
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Re: US launches aistrikes in Tirkrit,Gulf states bomb Yemen

Postby Kane » Thu Mar 26, 2015 1:59 pm

Tragic KingdomII wrote:
Kane wrote:It's easy to lament it but our position in the region is changing and we appear precarious simply because there's potentially a large shift going on. We are attempting to balance something that we can't in an effort to extend out our own goals.
What large shift would that be? Iran is attempting to exert its influence across the ME but it may have overreached. The KSA coalition includes Egypt, Jordan, Sudan, Pakistan and the rest of the Gulf states. If Iran really thought that Sunnis would sit there and watch as a shia Iran backed militia took over Yemen, it was badly mistaken. Heck, KSA invaded Bahrain because of anti government protestors that got a little rowdy.


IMO, the west is making a pivot towards Iran but in the process is trying to save face by playing both sides in the interim.
Stephen Jay Gould wrote:When people learn no tools of judgment and merely follow their hopes, the seeds of political manipulation are sown.
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