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Re: The rise and decline of great powers

PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 5:25 pm
by The Comrade
eynon81 wrote:
The Comrade wrote:
eynon81 wrote:
The Comrade wrote:let's not forget that china has gone from a state-capitalist, planned economy to a quickly-approaching oligarchy a la russia in the 90s. they aren't headed for good territory.


they have a much bigger middle-class though, along with better infrastructure, education, and resulting opportunity.

see what happens when you spend a reasonable amount on your military?



Their entire gamble is hoping domestic consumption shores up the shortfall in exports and foreign investment. They could all be middle class and it wouldn't mitigate the very bad economic waters they're entering


of course it will mitigate it, it may not prevent it however.


you're weirdly optimistic for someone that's staring a timebomb.

Re: The rise and decline of great powers

PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 5:52 pm
by eynon81
The Comrade wrote:you're weirdly optimistic for someone that's staring a timebomb.


dynamite is sometimes needed to build something great.

Re: The rise and decline of great powers

PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 5:56 pm
by The Comrade
now you're just being flippant. china has some serious systemic problems with their economy and herpin' about middle class growth isn't going to change the majority of those. as someone said earlier, china was too late to the game.

Re: The rise and decline of great powers

PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 6:03 pm
by eynon81
The Comrade wrote:now you're just being flippant. china has some serious systemic problems with their economy and herpin' about middle class growth isn't going to change the majority of those. as someone said earlier, china was too late to the game.


what did I say that was not true? they do have a big and growing middle-class, that middle-class should help mitigate the coming fall.

Re: The rise and decline of great powers

PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 6:07 pm
by The Comrade
eynon81 wrote:
The Comrade wrote:now you're just being flippant. china has some serious systemic problems with their economy and herpin' about middle class growth isn't going to change the majority of those. as someone said earlier, china was too late to the game.


what did I say that was not true? they do have a big and growing middle-class, that middle-class should help mitigate the coming fall.


it will help mitigate the failure of domestic consumption, possibly. it isn't going to stop the oligarchy, the shift from state-centered economic policy to personal-centered economic policy. short-sighted, short term gain instead of long term gain. rising energy prices, loan repayments, etc etc etc.

you are technically correct, in the same way that shooting a ballistic missile with a BB gun will alter its trajectory slightly.

Re: The rise and decline of great powers

PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 6:15 pm
by eynon81
The Comrade wrote:you are technically correct


Image

China still has major, major issues to overcome...but they've had major, major issues to overcome for the last 200 years.

The best case is that the major issues weaken the Beijing government, maybe even see some parts of the country split off. That was what Beijing was most scared of when I lived there. The southwest quarter of China would make a pretty great country.

Re: The rise and decline of great powers

PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2013 6:30 am
by PoS
eynon81 wrote:
The best case is that the major issues weaken the Beijing government, maybe even see some parts of the country split off. That was what Beijing was most scared of when I lived there. The southwest quarter of China would make a pretty great country.

China's meteoric rise in the world economy rankings makes that possibility highly remote- all Chinese love being Chinese now and part of a growing hegemony. The only ones who want to separate these days are the Moslem Uyghurs and the Tibetans- and they lack the raw power to resist the PLA.

Re: The rise and decline of great powers

PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2013 7:10 am
by The Dharma Bum
eynon81 wrote:
The Dharma Bum wrote:I fail to see any relevance to your denial. That is a book about the civil war.

The forced harvest of primitive accumulation of thousands of years of production by the industrialized nations, through enclosure, slavery, and imperialism is a well documented anthropological fact. You may as well tell me that George Washington couldn't tell a lie or something as a counter argument

As for the origin of of the US constitution:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Law_of_Peace

And the only reason any wildlife coexists with humanity now is or then is because of extensive wildlife management. Another thing we learned from Amerindians (this goes far beyond showing colonists how to plant corn)

You say you don't think Amerinds were ignorant savages but then attempt to completely minimize their many contributions to our society as if they never existed.


here's your issue, you're taking like reasons 2 through 5 of the "50 Reasons the United States Became a Great Power" and saying these are the reasons. It just aint accurate.


I haven't given any reasons why the US became a great power. I am telling you where the capital that entirely funded the mode of production that fuels this political entity came from.

The US only became a great power because it was the only one left with an industrial base and access to resources after WWII. We were never a great power prior to this point and if it never happened we would have never become a so-called "great power". This makes one actual reason, not 50.

Our attempts to hang on to this windfall in the post war era have been for the most part unsuccessful. We have been declining since our peak at the end of WWII where we controlled half of of the worlds wealth. By the 70s we were at a quarter. Today we are desperately trying to hold on to energy reserves in the Middle East and gain a foothold in Central Asia and it's vast supply of of industrial material.

Re: The rise and decline of great powers

PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2013 9:39 am
by Spider
^That entire post is pretty much wrong. Probably more ideologically motivated revisionism.

A "great power" is simply any country that has the ability to exert power on a global scale. You don't have to be the "greatest" power to be a great one. The US has had that power for a very long time...probably most firmly rammed home by the global cruises of the Great White Fleet around the turn of the century. Roosevelt was pulling it out and waving it around.

Image

The US was a great power long before WW2. The US emerged as such late in the 19th century, and by the time WW2 happened, even in the midst of the GD, the US was one of the world's largest economies and maintained one of the largest militaries. By the turn of the century the US was universally regarded as such, though by no means was it predominant. Consider the response to that whole Boxer thing in China: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight-Nation_Alliance

The US became a global superpower after WW2, and this power increased nearly all the way through the cold war, economically peaking sometime in the 90's, probably. I don't think we'll be going back to such a singular, dominant power as we were when I was a kid. Its important bear in mind the distinction between the older notions of a Great Power, as being capable of more than regional power, and the newer notions of global superpowers, where the US and USSR were effortlessly able to fight each other anywhere in the world, but with unprecedented ease and force.

Re: The rise and decline of great powers

PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2013 9:55 am
by spacemonkey
America was sold out by our corporations. But mostly it was sold out by our leadership that made it possible for the sellout to take place.