The rise and decline of great powers

Items of historical significance.

Re: The rise and decline of great powers

Postby NAB » Wed Sep 25, 2013 10:49 am

The Dharma Bum wrote:
NAB wrote:
The Dharma Bum wrote:I actually wrote a long response here about how Europeans essentially invaded the remnants of North American apocalypse but it got sponched and I didn't feel like rewriting.

How funny.


I already had a 5 page counter-response prepared for you, but I accidentially closed my browser window. It would have decimated your response.


Why are you a mod? It's laughable.


I thought your response wasn't serious, therefore I responded in said form. That was a real response to eynon?
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Re: The rise and decline of great powers

Postby Spider » Wed Sep 25, 2013 12:46 pm

The Dharma Bum wrote:I'm sorry you are offended but I don't think I said anyone thought that.

My actual statement was as follows:
"If you think we came here and there was nothing because the inhabitants were ignorant savages you couldn't be more wrong." in response to a statement to the effect that Amerinds on the eastern seaboard had some agriculture but not enough industry to be of consequence in the face of greater forces of productivity.

I think that is a valid comment in the face of an attempt to minimize the destruction the "birth of our nation" caused. The truth is America is not exceptional and the faster that Americans come to accept that fact the better the better off they will be.


That's just another red herring. Who said anything at all about American exceptionalism? Again I ask...where do you keep coming up with this? Until someone actually says "America is exceptional" don't worry about it. Its just petty obfuscation to make these implications. Having it implied that a person is of the sort that thinks that these people were "savages" or that he believes in the exceptionalism of anyone from within whatever set of imaginary lines is, yes, offensive...and you shouldn't be surprised when people take offense to it. It was the plan all along, right?

There has been no attempt to "minimize" anything. This is about countering your historical revisionist agenda, not diminishing or inflating anything at all.

And no. Stone Age societies are not comparable to industrialized ones in terms of production or development. Its been mentioned before, but you should probably read 1491. Good stuff on those topics in there.
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Re: The rise and decline of great powers

Postby broken robot » Wed Sep 25, 2013 1:25 pm

Ok shifting the debate a little to more contemporary grounds, one thing that's interesting about the rise of the US in the 20th century is that it basically boomed after World War II given both the rise of a massive military industry and the complete destruction of European/Asian economies. Many authors have argued that the US met a 1970s economic crisis as a result of increased production in these countries, Germany, Japan, etc. Interestingly though while people were fixated on Japan in the 1980s and even up until the 1990s political scientists were talking about Germany as the leader of a new power bloc against East and West, the attention has shifted to China. Japan has been facing a long period of stagnation while Germany is trying to bail out the rest of Europe.

This leads me to my point that China is booming now but will eventually get stuck the more it's integrated into global international economy. What happens when all the massive infrastructure and mining projects China is leading in Third World countries run into serious loan repayment problems? China's building shit everywhere but eventually there will be a problem with getting the money back, in addition to continuing long term US fiscal/deficit issues.
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Re: The rise and decline of great powers

Postby eynon81 » Wed Sep 25, 2013 1:38 pm

broken robot wrote:Ok shifting the debate a little to more contemporary grounds, one thing that's interesting about the rise of the US in the 20th century is that it basically boomed after World War II given both the rise of a massive military industry and the complete destruction of European/Asian economies. Many authors have argued that the US met a 1970s economic crisis as a result of increased production in these countries, Germany, Japan, etc. Interestingly though while people were fixated on Japan in the 1980s and even up until the 1990s political scientists were talking about Germany as the leader of a new power bloc against East and West, the attention has shifted to China. Japan has been facing a long period of stagnation while Germany is trying to bail out the rest of Europe.

This leads me to my point that China is booming now but will eventually get stuck the more it's integrated into global international economy. What happens when all the massive infrastructure and mining projects China is leading in Third World countries run into serious loan repayment problems? China's building shit everywhere but eventually there will be a problem with getting the money back, in addition to continuing long term US fiscal/deficit issues.


I think the Chinese are following more of the British model - infrastructure spending that directly impacts their economic projects in those countries (roads to mines and stuff). So the project kinda pays for itself.

We invested in 3rd world infrastructure largely because we were engaged in a "hearts & minds" struggle with the Soviet Union. Political investment as opposed to economic.
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Re: The rise and decline of great powers

Postby The Comrade » Wed Sep 25, 2013 1:41 pm

let's not forget that china has gone from a state-capitalist, planned economy to a quickly-approaching oligarchy a la russia in the 90s. they aren't headed for good territory.
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Re: The rise and decline of great powers

Postby eynon81 » Wed Sep 25, 2013 1:43 pm

The Comrade wrote:let's not forget that china has gone from a state-capitalist, planned economy to a quickly-approaching oligarchy a la russia in the 90s. they aren't headed for good territory.


they have a much bigger middle-class though, along with better infrastructure, education, and resulting opportunity.

see what happens when you spend a reasonable amount on your military?
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Re: The rise and decline of great powers

Postby Spider » Wed Sep 25, 2013 1:56 pm

broken robot wrote:Ok shifting the debate a little to more contemporary grounds, one thing that's interesting about the rise of the US in the 20th century is that it basically boomed after World War II given both the rise of a massive military industry and the complete destruction of European/Asian economies. Many authors have argued that the US met a 1970s economic crisis as a result of increased production in these countries, Germany, Japan, etc. Interestingly though while people were fixated on Japan in the 1980s and even up until the 1990s political scientists were talking about Germany as the leader of a new power bloc against East and West, the attention has shifted to China. Japan has been facing a long period of stagnation while Germany is trying to bail out the rest of Europe.

This leads me to my point that China is booming now but will eventually get stuck the more it's integrated into global international economy. What happens when all the massive infrastructure and mining projects China is leading in Third World countries run into serious loan repayment problems? China's building shit everywhere but eventually there will be a problem with getting the money back, in addition to continuing long term US fiscal/deficit issues.


I think China got to the party too late. The keg is mostly empty. They can get pretty wasted pretty fast from running around drinking backwash from everyone else, but the conditions just aren't the same. The West boomed due to cheap energy and near total dominance as much as anything else, and mostly sticking to demand-side. China on the other hand has missed out on the cheap energy, and is seemingly going supply-side in a lot of their planning...with potential bubbles left and right. Plus, they don't have anything even close to an open political plane, or civic transparency, and they don't have anything approaching dominance in any sense. They have a big pile of the fiat currency of others, and they don't have the same advantages they'd need in order to become a self-serving middle class centric consumer economy. They can't get there fast enough with so much inertia to overcome with much more expensive energy to try to do it with.

There was a window where massive expansion and structural build up could freely happen before the world got too small to sustain it...before the food and energy prices skyrocketed and the populations got to large...before the ecologies started to buckle. They're trying to jump through the window before it closes. Either they'll make it or they're going to need serious stitches.

People talk about the rest of the developing world like its going to follow the same growth path to prosperity...but things have changed and we are starting to crash into the hard limits imposed by world itself. Africa for example can't suddenly boom and expand on the back of near slave labor like China did. There's no room left.
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Re: The rise and decline of great powers

Postby The Comrade » Wed Sep 25, 2013 2:26 pm

eynon81 wrote:
The Comrade wrote:let's not forget that china has gone from a state-capitalist, planned economy to a quickly-approaching oligarchy a la russia in the 90s. they aren't headed for good territory.


they have a much bigger middle-class though, along with better infrastructure, education, and resulting opportunity.

see what happens when you spend a reasonable amount on your military?



Their entire gamble is hoping domestic consumption shores up the shortfall in exports and foreign investment. They could all be middle class and it wouldn't mitigate the very bad economic waters they're entering
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Re: The rise and decline of great powers

Postby eynon81 » Wed Sep 25, 2013 3:20 pm

The Comrade wrote:
eynon81 wrote:
The Comrade wrote:let's not forget that china has gone from a state-capitalist, planned economy to a quickly-approaching oligarchy a la russia in the 90s. they aren't headed for good territory.


they have a much bigger middle-class though, along with better infrastructure, education, and resulting opportunity.

see what happens when you spend a reasonable amount on your military?



Their entire gamble is hoping domestic consumption shores up the shortfall in exports and foreign investment. They could all be middle class and it wouldn't mitigate the very bad economic waters they're entering


of course it will mitigate it, it may not prevent it however.
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Re: The rise and decline of great powers

Postby eynon81 » Wed Sep 25, 2013 4:03 pm

The Dharma Bum wrote:I fail to see any relevance to your denial. That is a book about the civil war.

The forced harvest of primitive accumulation of thousands of years of production by the industrialized nations, through enclosure, slavery, and imperialism is a well documented anthropological fact. You may as well tell me that George Washington couldn't tell a lie or something as a counter argument

As for the origin of of the US constitution:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Law_of_Peace

And the only reason any wildlife coexists with humanity now is or then is because of extensive wildlife management. Another thing we learned from Amerindians (this goes far beyond showing colonists how to plant corn)

You say you don't think Amerinds were ignorant savages but then attempt to completely minimize their many contributions to our society as if they never existed.


here's your issue, you're taking like reasons 2 through 5 of the "50 Reasons the United States Became a Great Power" and saying these are the reasons. It just aint accurate.
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