Time to kill the Munich Meme.

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Re: Time to kill the Munich Meme.

Postby The Comrade » Fri Sep 20, 2013 2:32 pm

and the basis of yours is....your opinion. your own report acknowledges numbers after 3 months are impossible to calculate, yet you seem to think you can.
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Re: Time to kill the Munich Meme.

Postby exploited » Fri Sep 20, 2013 3:20 pm

Fine, don't accept that number. Stick with just the known number - $1-2 trillion in the first three months.

What do you think that will do to the economy, Comrade? Will it hurt a little or alot? Well, let's see...

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http://www.fuelfreedom.org/the-real-for ... economics/

Economist James Hamilton of the University of California, San Diego, who has researched the correlation between U.S. economic activity and oil prices, found that 10 of the last 11 recessions were preceded by spikes in oil prices
...

American households spent a record $4,000 each on gasoline in 2011, 8.4% of their total income. Overall, the U.S. spent more on fuel–$700 billion — in 2011 than on food–$600 billion. The average U.S. household spends more each year on transportation than on clothing, healthcare and entertainment combined. Households also spend nearly as much on gasoline each month as they do on car payments.

...

The very minimal cost increase presented by all experts is 100% - the same number that tends to lead to recessions. Also note that this would double the average Americans fuel costs to nearly 20% of their income... at least for three months.

So, 1/8th of the annual GDP of the US is lost in just three months. The cost of fuel has doubled, destroying the livelihood and viability of tens of millions of Americans, who simply cannot afford an additional $1000 for fuel over three months. And the economy is likely to slip into recession. And yet you would have us believe this war is winnable because the US destroys the military of a third world country? Really?

All of this doesn't even take into account the actual cost of the war... and as I have demonstrated, the unanimous opinion of a panel of three experts is that the war would require boots on the ground. At the very least, a Desert Storm size of operation. All of them also agreed that occupation would probably be necessary to prevent massive Iranian retaliation in the region. In other words, you can bet that the war will cost at least $1 trillion, not including long-term health care costs and financial obligations to troops.

Of course Iran is exponentially bigger than Iraq or Afghanistan combined... so the costs of the operation will likely be at least double or triple that of those respective wars.

So, now we're back to my original point, which I have proven again and again and again: the United States can destroy Iran and it's influence only if it doesn't care about the political, human and economic costs... which would be utterly impossible to do.

And you're done.
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Re: Time to kill the Munich Meme.

Postby The Comrade » Fri Sep 20, 2013 3:47 pm

exploited wrote:Fine, don't accept that number. Stick with just the known number - $1-2 trillion in the first three months.

What do you think that will do to the economy, Comrade? Will it hurt a little or alot? Well, let's see...

Image

http://www.fuelfreedom.org/the-real-for ... economics/

Economist James Hamilton of the University of California, San Diego, who has researched the correlation between U.S. economic activity and oil prices, found that 10 of the last 11 recessions were preceded by spikes in oil prices
...

American households spent a record $4,000 each on gasoline in 2011, 8.4% of their total income. Overall, the U.S. spent more on fuel–$700 billion — in 2011 than on food–$600 billion. The average U.S. household spends more each year on transportation than on clothing, healthcare and entertainment combined. Households also spend nearly as much on gasoline each month as they do on car payments.

...

The very minimal cost increase presented by all experts is 100% - the same number that tends to lead to recessions. Also note that this would double the average Americans fuel costs to nearly 20% of their income... at least for three months.

So, 1/8th of the annual GDP of the US is lost in just three months. The cost of fuel has doubled, destroying the livelihood and viability of tens of millions of Americans, who simply cannot afford an additional $1000 for fuel over three months. And the economy is likely to slip into recession. And yet you would have us believe this war is winnable because the US destroys the military of a third world country? Really?

All of this doesn't even take into account the actual cost of the war... and as I have demonstrated, the unanimous opinion of a panel of three experts is that the war would require boots on the ground. At the very least, a Desert Storm size of operation. All of them also agreed that occupation would probably be necessary to prevent massive Iranian retaliation in the region. In other words, you can bet that the war will cost at least $1 trillion, not including long-term health care costs and financial obligations to troops.

Of course Iran is exponentially bigger than Iraq or Afghanistan combined... so the costs of the operation will likely be at least double or triple that of those respective wars.

So, now we're back to my original point, which I have proven again and again and again: the United States can destroy Iran and it's influence only if it doesn't care about the political, human and economic costs... which would be utterly impossible to do.

And you're done.


1-2 trillionGLOBALLY. stop taking the global costs of that report and applying them solely to the US. even if you want to make a case that the US will bear the brunt of the economic costs, you're wrong. india and china, huge importers of iranian oil, are likely to suffer the most. the only direct cost to the US would be the cost of the war, and this is assuming it's a unilateral action.

read your own source.

as for fuel costs, we'll have to spend less on fuel. transportation costs in the US are far more flexible in the US than in other countries. while we have a car culture, much of it is voluntary. cost of war. and will it cause a recession? maybe, or maybe not. it's impossible to say with any degree of certainty. it depends on how we react to the asian markets and the oil speculators.

and requires an invasion? yes, only if the goal is full disarmament of iran and a regime change. different goals require different action. and i know a retired US general told you this, because i've read the same articles, but there are plenty of reports discussing narrow-scope engagements with iran. and lol don't even bring up your quds force "massive retaliation" bullshit again.

so economic cost isn't really that bad, political cost will be negligible depending on the cassus belli and the scope of the engagement, and the human cost? lol there you go again with your fearsome iranian military talk.
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