Ukraine Invasion

[John Galt]

[Saz]

[John Galt]

alright, sure. you're correct. but, it is worth to keep looking at nigeria as their demographics are going to pop off

back to russia

Russia is now allowing intellectual property theft from any nation that is "unfriendly". it's also seizing property of companies that try to leave. this is pariah-state level antics that will see russia implode and have no investment for decades. the choice left to it is to become a chinese vassal, and i'm not sure China even wants that. i think china just wants outer manchuria and siberia

[Saz]

[John Galt]

yes if we remember two years ago when oil went negative it's because we don't have on and off switches for this shit. takes a long time to get up and running and once it's on, it's on. it's why the energy shock that is going on right now is a shock but, as always, the market will overcorrect (since many are trying to get a piece of the pie when it's expensive) to the point of oil glut and we'll be on cheap oil and gas once again. russia being unable to move its product will be detrimental to its economy and to the very infrastructure that is supposed to move the product

US is going to push for more sanctions. we're just starting

meanwhile I'm seeing some reports of russian planes flying into Ukraine then into Belarus and bombing Belarus. Putin really is a one-trick pony

the craziest thing is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VE6DtG72O-8&t=4378s that's a russian propogandist interviewing someone who is wondering if the plan is "like in the bible where they walk around doing nothing but trumpeting until Zelenskyy surrenders" and stating this is "like [soviet invasion of] Afghanistan, but worse". anyway old dude is gonna find out how bad russian windows are soon

[Kane]

US Oil Rig count hasn't budged much. Lot of hemming and hawing about supply chain issues/backlogs but...the industry went through some massive consolidation and loss when there was that over-reaction.

If fracking in the US comes back it won't come back suddenly or with the same wild abandon - it will be calculated and based on fundamentals.

https://bakerhughesrigcount.gcs-web.com/na-rig-count
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/e_ertr ... nus_cm.htm

If they can't ensure price stability above the break even point I don't expect an explosion in production.

And then you have refining capacity...

[Kane]

Hmmmm....

https://www.reuters.com/world/white-hou ... 022-03-13/

Now we're openly telegraphing consequences to China for supporting Russia. This might not have been a wise move - China could take affront to this public airing of grievances (unless we're aware of efforts already underway to initiate this - in which case this is about to escalate further).

Also interesting - Iran just launched a strike in the area of a US consulate in Irbil, Iraq. Trying to goad us into a two front/pronged conflict?

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 022-03-12/

[Kane]

It would seem we had notice of Russia asking for Chinese assistance...

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia ... OLOtc03R8s

[Kane]

Last update:

Iran walks away from negotiations with Saudi Arabia over mass executions.

https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... -calls-off

SA has had mass executions in 2016 and 2019 - also lots of Shia in those. This seems like cover for something else entirely.

[John Galt]