Ukraine Invasion

[Kane]

lol if that got public or Putin was made aware then the invasion would be a done deal.

[Saz]

[uebermann]

I still stand by my first response here in that it is very unlikely Russia will invade.

They had to make this show of force - in their eyes - so they had a better position at the bargaining table. This is pretty much all economic. They don't want more sanctions dropped on them and want to keep making money from fossil fuel sales in Europe. Sabre rattling to get attention and then be appeased.

Russia had a weak hand, they had to bluff to get more money into the pot. Again - in their eyes. They really don't want more sanctions dropping on them due to all the cyber shit they are doing. So you stage an event like this, get the west to concede on sanctions that would likely come soon due to their cyber crimes against them, and get the west to back down on all of this and end up in a better overall economic position. Putin looks strong (still) to his supporters and keeps the power struggle in the country to an absolute minimum.

I guess the secondary hope is that the next move Russia makes is largely ignored as well if they pick a smaller target. Which I think we kinda have going on atm anyways.

I have some friends in Ukraine and Russia and its interesting to see their perspectives on all of this. The US and Russia really aren't all that different in the end. Think that was pretty evident under Trump but people still don't realize all the similarities between our countries at times and all the hatred pointed at the Russian people seems pretty dumb, as it is almost like looking in a mirror lol.

I feel pretty bad for Ukraine overall because most of them have just utter shit lives it seems. No jobs, no money, government seems to be virtually corrupt (though the current doesn't seem as bad at least), so most of the people want change and the older crowd sees Putin as some manly man that can muscle his way into the country and make sweeping, positive changes. Obvious that wouldn't be the outcome but its what they think would happen.

Keeping a peoples from drowning is really the ideal way to keep them from revolting or even really caring about politics too much. I see it when I talk to people that have barely anything and they just say all they are trying to do is survive and they don't even bother with news. Russia either attacks or it doesn't. So long as there's no actual war going on in their area and they can continue life mostly normal, they really could care less who is in charge.

[Saz]

[Kane]

How can the West possibly hope to convince Putin that they won't let Ukraine into NATO? The entire premise is a farce - Putin is orchestrating a narrative that justifies the invasion he's already convinced needs to happen. That was the whole point of the initial list - it was so farcical - it was a troll post. The idea that Putin would accept our guarantees regarding Ukranian entry into NATO seems seriously out of line with past precedent and that we would accept the notion of a nation state not being able to do so in order to appease a tyrant is just......sad. If we were anything like Russia we'd at least grow a pair.

To that point I bring up Poland - Poland is virulently anti Putin and they are slated to invest untold amounts of money into their military in the next five to ten years. The idea that Putin will sit by while the EU, NATO, and the West continue to modernize and expand their military power just doesn't make any sense to me. The guy is clearly a sociopath, ego driven, and has narcissistic tendencies similar to Trump (I'm riding on a horse right now without my shirt on). He wants nothing less than a restoration of the Soviet Union. Europe is weak right now.

Putin is not the DPRK screaming out for attention or high balling something to get what he ultimately wants. He did not do this in Georgia, Syria, or Crimea. If Ukraine isn't invaded then it's been used as a tool or a distraction for something else entirely.

[John Galt]

in a surprise to only people that haven't been paying attention, intelligence indicates russia will use false flag to attack its own proxy forces to blame ukraine for invasion. this is of course what they would do. i mean, Putin came to power with the apartment bombings which were the exact same thing

[Kane]

They don't even need to do that. Move forces towards the Ukranian lines, press forwards until Ukranian forces open fire, and then you have your casus belli. You can say they opened fire without provocation and admit a mistaken maneuver.

The Ukrainians are not stupid. They have been dealing with this for years - cyber attacks, attacks on their lines probing for weaknesses, misinformation campaigns, etc. They are ringing alarm bells because they know what's coming.

[Kane]

[Kane]

As expected this malware attack is more than it appears. I'm sure the GRU has put several backdoors in place and is laying the groundwork for a potential invasion. The same thing happened prior to Crimea.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/m ... -networks/

https://resources.infosecinstitute.com/ ... t-ukraine/

[Kane]

Canadians advised not to travel to Ukraine:

https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... to-ukraine

Peskov on CNN with Zakaria

https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... aine-putin

Russia' red line with the West is Ukraine. Period. And there's not much the West can do to tame Russian concerns so long as it's not controlled by a dictator that can be bent to Russia' will. The forces along the border aren't going anywhere.