Rubicon

[John Galt]

signs point to no recession. not only is GDP growing and jobs are at absurdly low unemployment rate, but very importantly philadephia didn't win the world series, like they did in 29, 80, and 08. people talking recession WANT a recession.

i guess we'll see if my prognostication is up to snuff tomorrow. dems win -- and expand the senate to nullify manchin/smegma, and we get two big years to fix america. alito f**k it all up and went too early. should have overturned roe THIS session, now the reactionaries will be beaten back

[Kane]

[John Galt]

honestly i think all of this shit is just priming a population to resort to political violence. theyve been screaming about red waves for so long a lot of people think it's going to happen, so if the opposite happens they are going to lose their f**k minds and do more violence. the only drum they can beat about it is "the economy is bad" even though it's not. it's like "the 2020 election was stolen" -- it's just saying things that aren't true to "make them true". my brother in christ, your own chart shows that the hiring in october for seasonal hiring is 5k less than the average for past decade, and higher than past two decades, and past three decades, and past 4 decades. and the 5k less really should be looked at in the whole picture of we have far beyond "full employment" right now so labor is at a premium

[John Galt]

The Dark Brandon is unstoppable

Still holding out for the house by the way. Also, looking like Boebert, the heavy favorite, is out of a f**k job. Hopefully the idiots at 538 are too. These people are worse than weathermen

[Kane]

[Kane]

Glad I was wrong on the economy. Got too obsessed with goods and not enough of services. Freight/consumer goods are definitely in the dumps though. Housing market seems incredibly resilient but a lot of that is owed to the dearth of existing inventory for sale - interest rates are constraining supply by keeping those of us with sub 3% 30yr fixed in our homes.

Not sure where we go from here - I'm just going to track the indicators and see what happens. If you had asked me months ago it looked like the consumer just gave up on things but we seem to by muddling on - with inflation slowing this just raises consumer spending power. Inflation is the real wildcard right now.

[Winchester]

The housing market (at least in my area) is freaking me out, I've never seen anything like it even during the last housing bubble. Rentals are all but impossible to be found and they can't build houses fast enough. New subdevelopment by me, One-level 1,050 sq/foot homes going for $310,000-$325,000. 1,400-1,500 sq ft homes going for $400-$425, 1,650-1,800 sq ft homes going for $475 to $550. Mortgage rate increases haven't slowed it down even a little bit. The average household income in our county is less than $54,000.

Former 5 bed/ 2.5 bath neighborhood house sold less than 3 years ago for $264,000, I thought they were off their f'ing rocker to ask that much. Last week a house across the street from that one sold in 4 days for $269K, except it was a 2 bed/2 bath home (this home sold in 2008 for $75,000), it was built in 1961 and shows it.

[Kane]

Maybe your market is just catching up? The Sacramento MSA and San Francisco MSA have been slowing down but you wouldn't know it by looking at prices - even in Sacramento most single family homes sell for above $500k. Anything under that doesn't stay on the market for long...at all.

Not sure exactly where you live in Montana but out here prices are high because inventory is just astronomically low. Look at the graphs below:







Current sales volume for Sac for the month of April matches....2007. Trying to buy in SF? hahahaha

[Kane]

Such a wild time to be alive...unemployment down to 3.4% and 253k jobs added in April.

Just stunning. What if SVB and FRC hadn't happened? May's numbers will be interesting but even freight looks like it just bottomed. Germany has avoided recession. Record number of oil tankers inbound to China.

I don't know how this isn't bullish anymore.