some republicans push carbon tax

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Re: some republicans push carbon tax

Postby exploited » Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:43 pm

For once, a solid Spider post.
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Re: some republicans push carbon tax

Postby John Galt » Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:22 am

like, honestly, people have been musing about this since aristotle mused about it. at the begining of the industrial revolution, britian saw duldroms in wage increases. this is when luddites like spider went around smashing looms. but such doom and gloom is unbecoming of an american, or even a mexican. technology will improve everyone's lives. note: today unemployment is at 4.7%, which is 0.3% above "full employment", even though robots doing work are more ubiquitous than ever

the economis writes, "Previous technological innovation has always delivered more long-run employment, not less." http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/ ... t-not-less

    The potential for dramatic change is clear. A future of widespread technological unemployment is harder for many to accept. Every great period of innovation has produced its share of labour-market doomsayers, but technological progress has never previously failed to generate new employment opportunities.

    The productivity gains from future automation will be real, even if they mostly accrue to the owners of the machines. Some will be spent on goods and services—golf instructors, household help and so on—and most of the rest invested in firms that are seeking to expand and presumably hire more labour. Though inequality could soar in such a world, unemployment would not necessarily spike. The current doldrum in wages may, like that of the early industrial era, be a temporary matter, with the good times about to roll (see chart 3).

    Image

    These jobs may look distinctly different from those they replace. Just as past mechanisation freed, or forced, workers into jobs requiring more cognitive dexterity, leaps in machine intelligence could create space for people to specialise in more emotive occupations, as yet unsuited to machines: a world of artists and therapists, love counsellors and yoga instructors.

    Such emotional and relational work could be as critical to the future as metal-bashing was in the past, even if it gets little respect at first. Cultural norms change slowly. Manufacturing jobs are still often treated as “better”—in some vague, non-pecuniary way—than paper-pushing is. To some 18th-century observers, working in the fields was inherently more noble than making gewgaws.

    But though growth in areas of the economy that are not easily automated provides jobs, it does not necessarily help real wages. Mr Summers points out that prices of things-made-of-widgets have fallen remarkably in past decades; America’s Bureau of Labour Statistics reckons that today you could get the equivalent of an early 1980s television for a twentieth of its then price, were it not that no televisions that poor are still made. However, prices of things not made of widgets, most notably college education and health care, have shot up. If people lived on widgets alone— goods whose costs have fallen because of both globalisation and technology—there would have been no pause in the increase of real wages. It is the increase in the prices of stuff that isn’t mechanised (whose supply is often under the control of the state and perhaps subject to fundamental scarcity) that means a pay packet goes no further than it used to.

yeah there might be some adjustment issues. but this doesn't mean it is the end of people being employed.
Americans learn only from catastrophe and not from experience. -- Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: some republicans push carbon tax

Postby exploited » Thu Mar 30, 2017 8:45 am

Of course it won't "end" people being employed. There will always be a workforce of some kind. At issue is the requirements and prerequisites for joining that workforce. The simple fact is that the majority of people are not and will never be able to be a programmer. They will never understand how to write software or fix robots. There is a large swath of people who are incapable of performing any job beyond simplistic, routine tasks that require a minimal of intellectual ability. For most of history, these people become labourers of some sort. They work on production lines, they weed fields, they go into construction, etc. Of course, all of those jobs are going to go away. Automation will take over manufacturing, with limited jobs available for robot technicians. Cars will be diagnosed and fixed remotely, and car ownership itself will likely disappear. Construction will be done by giant 3D printers. Even labour mainstays like farming are undergoing a massive automation drive.

Now, it is conceivable, as your article mentions, that such people will turn into artists and therapists and yoga instructors - in other words, that the service industry will provide jobs for them. Of course the absurdity of a society where 80% of the population is dedicated to doing your nails or bringing you food is obvious. Such a society will never be sustainable because those services will not be able to justify any sort of living wage. When there are tens of millions of therapists and yoga instructors, how much can they really charge for their work?

Spider, to his credit, was absolutely correct to describe your beliefs as a religion. I hate to break it to you, but the Industrial Revolution was basically insignificant compared to the changes that we are seeing now. The internet, robots, AI, machine learning, cyber-enhancements, etc. have and will fundamentally change everything, not just how cloth is made or whether workers are paid piecemeal or hourly. It is an entirely different world. I would even go so far as to say that we are witnessing the birth of an entire new genus - homo digitalis. The closest historical analogy I can think of is the transition between hunter-gathering and agriculture, which altered every single aspect of humanity, even our genes and evolutionary direction.
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Re: some republicans push carbon tax

Postby John Galt » Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:26 am

i like how me using examples of what has always happened and claiming it will to continue to happen is "religion" while visions of the apocalypse by you luddites is clearly not the ranting and ravings of cultists at all. товарищи, i know you think your time has come at last, but it hasn't
Americans learn only from catastrophe and not from experience. -- Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: some republicans push carbon tax

Postby exploited » Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:09 am

John Galt wrote:i like how me using examples of what has always happened and claiming it will to continue to happen is "religion" while visions of the apocalypse by you luddites is clearly not the ranting and ravings of cultists at all. товарищи, i know you think your time has come at last, but it hasn't


Human beings have always had the technology to directly alter their genetic code, communicate across the planet, interface directly with the brain, create machines that are better than them at complex games such as Chess, manufacture homes and office buildings with printers, live until they are 80 on average, program robots capable of sewing up grapes, produce enough food for billions, destroy entire planets, grow organs and limbs, annihilate the most destructive infectious diseases, etc.?

Beause I'm pretty sure you are trying to compare switching to looms with the single most rapid and large scale economic, technological and social change we've seen in thousands of years.
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Re: some republicans push carbon tax

Postby John Galt » Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:28 am

the singularity is upon is. we cannot know what life will be like beyond it. until the singularity happens товарищ we will be stuck toiling along, and i don't think it will lead to horrible things like you think. the signularity defined is "the hypothesis that the invention of artificial superintelligence will abruptly trigger runaway technological growth, resulting in unfathomable changes to human civilization"

you on the other hand have said to me you think the internet is the singularity. it is not. you're right there will be massive changes, but it is not automation of jobs that will be causing it

if we look back at the game changers, we have fire and its subsequent cooking, language and the subsequent ability to create tribal societies that could interact, agriculture and animal husbandry and its subsequent food storage and ability for division of labor, industrialization and automation its subsequent on demand economy with near independence from agriculture, and finally the singularity (which i presume is the development of the hive-mind). note: automation is part of industrialization. now there's a lot of things that are all driven from those, e.g., vaccinations and sanitation, the wheel and plow, gunpowder and the rocket, but these are i think the big game changers. we are on the cusp of another, but it has nothing to do with what you guys are talking about

but even with the singularity people will find things to do with their lives afterward. i cannot know what will happen after the singularity but it is possible to become a post scarcity society at that point and then we will all be товарищи
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Re: some republicans push carbon tax

Postby exploited » Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:53 am

John Galt wrote:the singularity is upon is. we cannot know what life will be like beyond it. until the singularity happens товарищ we will be stuck toiling along, and i don't think it will lead to horrible things like you think. the signularity defined is "the hypothesis that the invention of artificial superintelligence will abruptly trigger runaway technological growth, resulting in unfathomable changes to human civilization"

you on the other hand have said to me you think the internet is the singularity. it is not. you're right there will be massive changes, but it is not automation of jobs that will be causing it

if we look back at the game changers, we have fire and its subsequent cooking, language and the subsequent ability to create tribal societies that could interact, agriculture and animal husbandry and its subsequent food storage and ability for division of labor, industrialization and automation its subsequent on demand economy with near independence from agriculture, and finally the singularity (which i presume is the development of the hive-mind). note: automation is part of industrialization. now there's a lot of things that are all driven from those, e.g., vaccinations and sanitation, the wheel and plow, gunpowder and the rocket, but these are i think the big game changers. we are on the cusp of another, but it has nothing to do with what you guys are talking about

but even with the singularity people will find things to do with their lives afterward. i cannot know what will happen after the singularity but it is possible to become a post scarcity society at that point and then we will all be товарищи


Yes, the internet is the singularity. There is no doubt about it. It perfectly fits all of your descriptions. I like to refer to it as the "meta-technology," in that it has or will fundamentally transform every other type of technology. There is nothing quite like it. Even the invention of electricity cannot be compared to our newfound ability to process and share information on a global level. And it is abundantly obvious that the internet, combined with artificial enhancements to our genetic code and our physical bodies, will result in a hivemind.

Consider robotics. Artificial intelligence. Gene editing. Space travel. Basically every single cutting edge technology out there is being transformed by the internet. The level of technological development is simply unprecedented - nothing comes even close, at any point in our history. It is, indeed, runaway technological growth. We were lucky enough to see the first small steps... by the time we die, the world and people will be unrecognizable. Homo sapiens will be pretty much obsolete within our lifetimes - once we edit out all of the bad stuff, enhance our abilities beyond measure, and start communicating directly with the hivemind via implants... yeah, it is a new species.

What will happen is this:

1. No UBI, and therefore massive class stratification based upon very real genetic, physical, intellectual and social differences. Massive, conflicted, polluted ghettos on one hand, gleaming utopias on the other.
2. UBI, and a proper post-scarcity society, where most people live simply for pleasure, and only the driven and those with passion bother to work.
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Re: some republicans push carbon tax

Postby John Galt » Thu Mar 30, 2017 12:27 pm

the singularity is the emergence of superintelligence. the internet is not intelligent
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Re: some republicans push carbon tax

Postby exploited » Thu Mar 30, 2017 1:00 pm

John Galt wrote:the singularity is the emergence of superintelligence. the internet is not intelligent


You probably have this antiquated notion of super-intelligence being HAL 3000. Essentially, a machine that can think, learn and act independently of humans.

That way of discussing the singularity has been dead for some time. The super-intelligence will be a merger of our innate bioware, and the processing power available to us from machines. All of us will be linked together in this fashion, and the hive mind will be the sum of our actions and decisions, rather than what is essentially an operating system, rigorously laid out and programmed in advance. Here again I imagine you have some antiquated notion that the hivemind will be like the Borg or ants or something, where independence isn't really possible if you want to survive, and behaviour is easily predicted by noting certain operating principles. That just isn't the case with humans, or technology, and it never has been.

You really need to catch up on the transhumanism movement bro. You're like twenty years behind the times. The internet IS the singularity, we just haven't setup all the networking protocols needed yet.
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Re: some republicans push carbon tax

Postby John Galt » Thu Mar 30, 2017 1:43 pm

if its been dead for some time, it must be why it is the way it is discussed everywhere that way except for inside of your head

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

also the word "singularity" means "the state, fact, quality, or condition of being singular.". you can't have the singularity already happen but also that requires future inputs, as you are bizarrely attempting to say. perhaps post-singularity you will learn how to read a dictionary
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