We're so f*cked

[Spider]

High-risk low-reward test for Tillerson. If he wins, well...congrats? You aren't an eggplant, Rex. But if he loses...damn. No bouncing back from that as a person. It's over.

[Kane]

[ToddStarnes]

They are likely both relatively middling. I would put Trump in the 105-110 range and Wilkerson 110-115 range.

[ToddStarnes]

Hard to see a scenario in which we withdraw from NAFTA.

[Kane]

[John Galt]

Remember when Trump got all that legislation through so easily? Changing or discarding a treaty ought to be a breeze

[Kane]

He alone can remove the US from NAFTA under section 2205. Should Congress decide to contest his authority they’d risk his ire and the GOP base.

[John Galt]

I think it is an open question, as the president is the sole organ in foreign affairs and he is merely implementing the notice to withdraw, but the law was implemented by Congress. As this National Review piece indicates, this is banana republic shit if the president can nullify legislative actions

www.nationalreview.com/article/447155/c ... eave-nafta

So maybe he can give notice, but it will be fought immediately and I think SCOTUS will miraculously limit presidental power. That's my prediction, if he does give notice

[Kane]

It’s a dangerous proposition because of how the GOP has positioned itself. I get that there’s room to argue otherwise but Trump and Bannon will seek to capitalize off of that either way. I know people think less of Bannon, that he’s an idiot, etc but people elected Trump because they were tired of “establishment” bullshit. And what do we know about Bannon and Trump? They know how to entertain and thereby how to frame a given incident for their base. McConnell and Ryan are loathed by the GOP base with their popularity plummeting. Bannon is pushing Erick Prince of Blackwater and another dude that literally just got out of jail.

I would say that nothing is certain right now and that the GOP has nobody to blame but themselves.

[Kane]

Another point I’d make...Trump supporters don’t necessarily give a shit about words like “banana republic.” They see Trump trying to “fix” something and other people saying he can’t. While we like politics and educate ourselves daily the average voter does not. If you need an example of that just look to Roy Moore of Alabama.

I’m telling you dude, bad things may be coming. Worse than a constrained Trump.