Brexit and the future of the EU

[John Galt]

polls for 5 weeks have put Britain on a course for Brexit http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/ ... Europe-Day

the British PM warned that this could lead to instability and war in europe, and I actually agree. I think a Brexit will cause factions in every country in the EU to do the same type of thing. A Brexit is the beginning of the end of the post-war dream, and europe will return to the same savagery that made europe europe for the past two millenia. meaning a Brexit is nothing less than a disaster. europeans are the most barbarous people on the planet and they need non continental influence to sooth their bloodlust, as well as an institution that crosses national boundaries. a fracturing of the EU is the last thing europe needs. worse, america is going to turn even more inward after this election, regardless of who is elected. it's like in some perverse way people want history to repeat itself

[Saz]

Not gonna happen.

[exploited]

Leaving the EU will result in some negatives, but considering what a f**k it is, I don't blame Britain at all. I also think Galt is grossly over exaggerating the potential damages - there will be no intercontinental war so long as Russia continues to be Russia, and isolationism is completely done as an ideology.

If they leave, they'll negotiate free trade agreements with the major players, they'll look into setting up an alternative continental agreement, and the end result will be putting pressure on the EU to reform, or do nothing as others flee to the alternative.

This will not stop free trade, will not lead to war, and will not have a massive impact on the British economy. So the choice is theirs.

[Saz]

That's literally all wrong. It would be an unmitigated and unprecedented economic disaster. To leave the EU would be to withdraw from the single market, and after striking a blow into the back of the EU like that, the terms of trade with the EU will be unfavourable at best, and non-existent if the French have their way. The UK is a small economy with limited growth potential from the perspective of China, the US, or the EU. They will not secure as favourable, or more favourable, trade terms when they are a market of 60 million instead of 500 million. From anyone, even Canada will be in a position to drive a harder bargain. London as a financial center will be dealt a severe blow with the loss of passporting, and I'm sure in the event of an exit the EU would mandate that euro clearing be done within the EU, which makes London a less and less desirable financial center. The sterling, good lord just look at what happened to the pound sterling on announcement of the referendum. It's fallen precipitously. In the event of a brexit I wouldn't be surprised if it reached parity with the dollar.

This is a problem that has been brewing for a while. Britain has always been disinterested in the EU and has failed to make itself an integral and influential member. Yet a significant portion of the British economy depends on trade with Europe, or European workers, or access to the European market. To pull out of the Union at this point would be suicide. Even if you think it is doomed to fail, Britain would be allow better off slipping out the back door when things begin to unravel. Not being the first one to stomp out. The real risk for the british here is they jettison themselves off into the sea, overestimating their own strength and importance, and then watch as their secession drives Europe into a more united and more economically and politically effective block. The British have demonstrated they can opt out of any serious EU proposals, so there really is no harm to staying. Leaving would be an incredibly stupid and harmful decision, and the British didn't get an Empire by making stupid decisions like that. No chance they leave. Tory tomfoolery that will be done with before the end of summer.

[JockandBallTorture]

Russian nationalism is incredibly insane and is a legitimate threat multiplier to European stability and peace. Their core military equipment, direct action, and unconventional combat units are now more technically capable than anything NATO/EU has...

...but the EU couldn't manage a war-- the single member states couldn't either-- NATO only has the infrastructure to manage a war.

The EU is economic but their crisis reaction is garbage too. Greecey garbage.


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[The Comrade]

they won't leave. if by some grace of god they do i hope they enjoy losing scotland.

[Doncorelone]

[spacemonkey]

Parts of the world are shit holes. I suppose the plan is to have the entire world in the same hole.

[Kane]

[exploited]

In your first link, it ranges from +1.5% to -4% (I removed the PwC study because it's such a large outlier). From what I've read elsewhere, we are realistically looking at +1 to -2%. So there could be losses, yes, but they won't be massive, it isn't suicidal, it doesn't spell the end of peace in Europe, etc. Basically that's my issue with the hysteria and alarmism on display here.

We are talking about a minor recession at the absolute worst. It's not the Armageddon, people.