Capital flight

Re: Capital flight

Postby Saz » Thu Apr 13, 2017 2:35 am

exploited wrote:Everyone who plays the stock market is.


This is just incorrect. The fundamental difference is the stock market has strong and consistent returns in the medium to long run. Gambling will have negative long run returns, the house always wins. If the house didn't always win in the long run, it would be called investing.

The more you know....*shooting star*
Pun intended for the plebes on here who don't get a joke

These users thanked the author Saz for the post:
Demosthenes
User avatar
Saz
Governor
 
Posts: 8496
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 9:37 am
Location: Airstrip One
Gender: Male
Has thanked: 1070 times
Been thanked: 903 times
Political Leaning: Classic Liberal

Re: Capital flight

Postby Saz » Thu Apr 13, 2017 5:37 am

Saz wrote:
Winchester wrote:
Saz wrote:
Saz wrote:
The Dharma Bum wrote:still into alts?


Yep. Haven't checked then in a while, not since gox went down. It's a long term thing


Guess who went in with 5k on ETH at $16 weighted average? This f**k guy. If it reaches bitcoin prices i'll make half a mil. Still have about $4k in bitcoin but I think I lost my other cryptos (and like 2k of bitcoin) cause i can't get into another exchange.


You sound like a gambler.


Actually that's one vice I don't really have. I'll throw 50 bucks on a game sometimes but otherwise don't gamble.

Like I said years ago it may not be BTC or ETH, but cryptos are the future. And actually I have made an incredible amount on these coins. Forgot what I paid for them years ago but I made profit back then and pulled out initial investment amount so this is all house money and I'm sitting on around 20k now which is nothing to sneeze at.


I actually just checked and my initial investment was 1k, pulled out 2k in profits, and reinvested another 1.5k. So $500 net investment and after 7 years I'm sitting on 19k and change in Cryptos. May pull out 501 so I can say I didn't lose money no matter how things go, but either way that's a hell of a return already and ETH could still climb.

Big issue is taxes though...didn't really document many of my trades in the past so I'm not sure how the whole thing works. A problem for tomorrow though, I'm gonna hold this shit much longer.
Pun intended for the plebes on here who don't get a joke
User avatar
Saz
Governor
 
Posts: 8496
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 9:37 am
Location: Airstrip One
Gender: Male
Has thanked: 1070 times
Been thanked: 903 times
Political Leaning: Classic Liberal

Re: Capital flight

Postby exploited » Thu Apr 13, 2017 6:59 am

Saz wrote:
exploited wrote:Everyone who plays the stock market is.


This is just incorrect. The fundamental difference is the stock market has strong and consistent returns in the medium to long run. Gambling will have negative long run returns, the house always wins. If the house didn't always win in the long run, it would be called investing.

The more you know....*shooting star*


If you are an informed, conscientious person who understands the stock market, stays informed, and plays it safe, sure. In that sense you are correct, I shouldn't have said everyone. But most people really have no clue, which is why they pay some guy they don't know to invest their money for them.

This is fundamentally a form of gambling - you don't know specifically what you are investing in, you don't control how the money is spent unless you are involved day to day, you have no ability to change the actions or practices of the things you are investing in, you don't know the person investing your money, you don't know how or why you are or are not making money, and your holdings aren't big enough to have an impact on their own. You basically pick a risk level and see how things play out. Your returns will be dictated mostly by market trends rather than any sense of real business value. Small Town Investment Advisor doesn't know a goddamn thing about what is happening in the companies and big funds he invests in.

So, yes, consistent returns for the market overall... And at any point, hundreds of thousands of losers who don't make a dime and in fact lose money. The stock market is a collective mirage, a supposedly safe place unless you happen to lose it all in the every-decade crash, which happens, you know, every decade. Or you get ripped off, which happens all the time. Or you just lose your shirt, which happens to thousands every single day.

It takes a truly immature perspective to argue that the stock market is anything but gambling. At best it is a game of Blackjack, at worst it is the f**k slots machines. But then again, I am talking to a guy who resurrected a thread to brag about his digital wallets :))
User avatar
exploited
Vice President
 
Posts: 21028
Joined: Fri Sep 14, 2012 2:32 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada
Gender: Male
Has thanked: 2212 times
Been thanked: 1702 times

Re: Capital flight

Postby Saz » Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:33 am

If you are an informed, conscientious person who understands the stock market, stays informed, and plays it safe, sure. In that sense you are correct, I shouldn't have said everyone. But most people really have no clue, which is why they pay some guy they don't know to invest their money for them.

The point is it's not a losing proposition, even for the uninformed. Most Americans invest in the market, primarily through their retirement accounts, and earn good returns with no knowledge or active involvement on their part. From a theoretical perspective when the market yields 4% on average, you could randomly pick stocks and you would average out to a 4% return. So the fact is for a vast majority of people market participation bears no resemblance to gambling.

This is fundamentally a form of gambling - you don't know specifically what you are investing in, you don't control how the money is spent unless you are involved day to day, you have no ability to change the actions or practices of the things you are investing in, you don't know the person investing your money, you don't know how or why you are or are not making money, and your holdings aren't big enough to have an impact on their own.
So what. The only thing that matters is the average return, which is always positive in the long run. You can't seem to distinguish between a risk and a gamble. Risk is inherent in the market and in all of life's activities. What distinguishes gambling is when the returns are expected to be negative and yet you play anyway. If the returns are expected to be positive it's an investment.

You basically pick a risk level and see how things play out. Your returns will be dictated mostly by market trends rather than any sense of real business value. Small Town Investment Advisor doesn't know a goddamn thing about what is happening in the companies and big funds he invests in.
Again, so what? The only thing you need to know is that the long run return is always positive.

So, yes, consistent returns for the market overall... And at any point, hundreds of thousands of losers who don't make a dime and in fact lose money.
Short time horizon. If you put money into the market and expect a return short term, that's gambling, because short term returns in the market are not consistently assured. Some people consistently win at a casino, or win big once and never return...it's still gambling because the ROR is negative in the long run.

The stock market is a collective mirage, a supposedly safe place unless you happen to lose it all in the every-decade crash, which happens, you know, every decade. Or you get ripped off, which happens all the time. Or you just lose your shirt, which happens to thousands every single day.
No one loses their shirt unless they have a short time horizon or invest in a particular stock rather than the wider market. If you put all your money in the market right before the 08 crash you would have double your money today. You really should understand the distinction. Property is the same way, in the long run you will not lose money.

It takes a truly immature perspective to argue that the stock market is anything but gambling.

It's not. Millions of people make a living from the reliable returns of the market and it funds retirement for nearly the entire country. It's not a gamble.

At best it is a game of Blackjack at worst it is the f**k slots machines.
The house always win in the long run at blackjack and slots. You always win in the long run in the market. They are completely different.

But then again, I am talking to a guy who resurrected a thread to brag about his digital wallets :))

I mean I've gotten 70% annual returns YOY for 7 years. That's f**k good. So good I will actually admit this is more of a gamble than an investment (although here the long run ROR is unknown, rather than veritably positive or negative, so the degree to which it is a gamble depends on the quality of information you have). But I'm very confident in the future of Cryptos and that bet has already paid off tremendously for me. Hedge Fund bros would kill for my ALPHA
Pun intended for the plebes on here who don't get a joke
User avatar
Saz
Governor
 
Posts: 8496
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 9:37 am
Location: Airstrip One
Gender: Male
Has thanked: 1070 times
Been thanked: 903 times
Political Leaning: Classic Liberal

Re: Capital flight

Postby spacemonkey » Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:14 am

One good thing is all these greedy f**k will off themselves when the lose most or all their shit. True wealth will be common sense, and many will be broke.
The hardest part of doing nothing is knowing when your done.
spacemonkey
Governor
 
Posts: 4874
Joined: Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:54 am
Location: cyberspace
Gender: None specified
Has thanked: 64 times
Been thanked: 269 times

Re: Capital flight

Postby exploited » Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:20 am

It is always adorable when people interested in stocks get offended by being called gamblers. You can really tell the pros from the amateurs based on how they respond to this exact conversation. A pro will readily admit - in private - that the stock market is gambling, which is why they follow a particular set of rules, diversify risk, etc. They understand that the outcome of their bets is mostly beyond their control - they cannot move markets like the big players can, and they have no real say in the day to day operations of what they are investing in. They are making massive assumptions about the future that are completely beyond their ability to make, and even then, the only way to succeed is to just stick it out and keep on playing for a really long time, even if you lose everything and have to start over.

Now, you have decided that gambling is only gambling if the house always wins. Meanwhile you are pointing to the long-term success of the stock market - the house always winning - as proof of why you aren't gambling. All while ignoring the waste products of the market, those who actually do lose all their money and ruin their lives as a result ("in the long run, the market is always positive, except for when it isn't"). It is really quite insane, but then, so much of the stock market is insane - a mass delusion perpetuated by those obsessed with the thrill of easy money.

Back in reality, this is what gambling is, and perfectly describes everything you have said about the stock market:

A person engages in gambling when he stakes or risks something of value upon the outcome of a contest of chance or a future contingent event not under his control or influence, upon an agreement or understanding that he will receive something of value in the event of a certain outcome.
Last edited by exploited on Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
User avatar
exploited
Vice President
 
Posts: 21028
Joined: Fri Sep 14, 2012 2:32 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada
Gender: Male
Has thanked: 2212 times
Been thanked: 1702 times

Re: Capital flight

Postby spacemonkey » Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:29 am

Sure its gambling, but at least you can do your homework. Its not just dumb luck like many gambling games. Rather its like betting on the horses. Gambling either way though is subject to the shit happens rule. Wall st. is more like it shits itself rule.
The hardest part of doing nothing is knowing when your done.
spacemonkey
Governor
 
Posts: 4874
Joined: Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:54 am
Location: cyberspace
Gender: None specified
Has thanked: 64 times
Been thanked: 269 times

Re: Capital flight

Postby Saz » Sat Apr 15, 2017 10:04 am

exploited wrote:It is always adorable when people interested in stocks get offended by being called gamblers.


Lemme stop you right there. I don't trade stock. I'm not allowed.

You can really tell the pros from the amateurs based on how they respond to this exact conversation. A pro will readily admit - in private - that the stock market is gambling, which is why they follow a particular set of rules, diversify risk, etc.

No, they will admit it's a RISK. The rules help minimise and allocate risk but it's still a risk. An actual professional who is trading with someone elses money is required by law to tell you it is a risk and that you could lose everything.

They understand that the outcome of their bets is mostly beyond their control - they cannot move markets like the big players can, and they have no real say in the day to day operations of what they are investing in.
Most of the people who professionally trade are the big players. It's not retail investors picking stock on their own who make money. They trade in insignificant volumes and of course they cannot move the market. No one does this though because it is dumb, you don't have more info (unless inside). The big players can and do decide how a company is run, they can move markets, they know what they are investing in. You just have no clue what you are talking about. 99% of the market is professional institutions, it's not your uncle and his scottrade account.

They are making massive assumptions about the future that are completely beyond their ability to make, and even then, the only way to succeed is to just stick it out and keep on playing for a really long time, even if you lose everything and have to start over.
You should never be in a position where you can lose all your money. Again, if you invest in the market that won't happen, if you invest in one company anything could happen.

Now, you have decided that gambling is only gambling if the house always wins.

Gambling are games of chance where the long run return will always be negative. I don't consider poker gambling either, because those who are actually good at it will always make a return in the long run because there is an element of skill.

Meanwhile you are pointing to the long-term success of the stock market - the house always winning - as proof of why you aren't gambling.All while ignoring the waste products of the market, those who actually do lose all their money and ruin their lives as a result ("in the long run, the market is always positive, except for when it isn't").
These people are idiot. I'm sorry but you have no one to blame but yourself if you lose it all in the market. Most people make a ton of money knowing nothing and doing nothing, it's not a gamble in the long run.

It is really quite insane, but then, so much of the stock market is insane - a mass delusion perpetuated by those obsessed with the thrill of easy money.
?? Not even sure you have the faintest idea how a stock market works or what it's intended purpose is.

Back in reality, this is what gambling is, and perfectly describes everything you have said about the stock market:

A person engages in gambling when he stakes or risks something of value upon the outcome of a contest of chance or a future contingent event not under his control or influence, upon an agreement or understanding that he will receive something of value in the event of a certain outcome.
Again, this is not how the market works. When you own stock you already own it. You don't receive anything of value based on any outcome. You are buying an asset, period. The fact that such asset may appreciate or depreciate does not make it a gamble. Like I said it's no different than buying a house (or any other asset really). You buy it at a certain value and do as you please with it. In the future it may be worth more than you paid, it may be worth less. For the US equity markets, it will be worth about 4% more each year on average.
Pun intended for the plebes on here who don't get a joke
User avatar
Saz
Governor
 
Posts: 8496
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 9:37 am
Location: Airstrip One
Gender: Male
Has thanked: 1070 times
Been thanked: 903 times
Political Leaning: Classic Liberal

Re: Capital flight

Postby exploited » Sat Apr 15, 2017 10:21 am

There are at least a half dozen factually incorrect statements in that post. Somebody hasn't bothered to keep up on the ICIs annual reports :))
User avatar
exploited
Vice President
 
Posts: 21028
Joined: Fri Sep 14, 2012 2:32 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada
Gender: Male
Has thanked: 2212 times
Been thanked: 1702 times

Re: Capital flight

Postby Saz » Sat Apr 15, 2017 11:53 am

exploited wrote:There are at least a half dozen factually incorrect statements in that post. Somebody hasn't bothered to keep up on the ICIs annual reports :))


(Pizza boy who went all in on Marijuana stocks lecturing corporate attorney with a well diversified portfolio)

You don't want to know how much 40 act bullshit I have to do, but I can tell you for a fact no one reads ICI reports. Lmao thanks though ICI Annual Report will be perfect to name drop with partner
Pun intended for the plebes on here who don't get a joke
User avatar
Saz
Governor
 
Posts: 8496
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 9:37 am
Location: Airstrip One
Gender: Male
Has thanked: 1070 times
Been thanked: 903 times
Political Leaning: Classic Liberal

PreviousNext

Return to Economy

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron